Focus on Soybean Oil

The sharp increase in soybean prices that began in June 2012 and peaked in early September 2012 was carried more by soybean meal prices than by soybean oil prices. From the June low to the September peak, January 2013 soybean futures increased by 43 percent, January soybean meal futures increased by 51 percent, and January soybean oil futures gained 20 percent. Soybean oil futures are now back to the level of early June, while soybean futures are 13 percent above the early June level and soybean meal futures are 21 percent higher.

For the 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA expects soybean oil prices to remain weak relative to soybean meal prices. The price of crude oil at Decatur, Illinois is expected to average 2.26 times the price (per pound) of 48 percent protein meal at Decatur. The ratio of average prices was 3.08 during the 2010-11 marketing year and 2.64 last year. In nominal terms, the average price of soybean oil is projected in a range of $0.51 to $0.55 per pound, compared to an average of $0.519 last year and $0.532 during the 2010-11 marketing year. On the other hand, the average prices of soybeans and soybean meal are projected to be substantially above the averages of the previous two years.  <Read More>