Spring Burndown Applications To Weeds And Cover Crops

This spring so far has been cold and wet with short spurts of warm sunny days in-between. This weather cycle for the most part kept producers out of field and allowed the winter annual weeds to flourish the past couple of weeks. As we look ahead to the next couple of weeks in hope of getting out to the fields to do spring no-till burndown applications, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. <Read More>

Upcoming Event - Area Corn and Soybean Day

Purdue Extension Educators from southwest Indiana are hosting an Area Corn & Soybean Day for grain producers interested in receiving agronomic, as well as, a local grain market update.  The event is being held on Tuesday, February 5^th at the Vanderburgh County Fairgrounds Activities building, beginning with registration at 8:00 AM CST. 

Purdue University Agronomy Specialists Bob Nielsen, Shaun Casteel and Jim Camberato will be the featured speakers on corn, soybeans and fertilizer topics.  In addition, representatives from area grain elevators will conduct a panel discussion on grain marketing issues. PARP, CCH, and CEU credit is available. 

A complete list of speakers and topics is available here.

Weekly Outlook - USDA Reports Provide Some Price Direction

On January 11, the USDA released a series of reports that provide important fundamental information for the crop markets. The information included the final estimate of the size of the 2012 U.S. corn and soybean crops, estimates of December 1 crop inventories, a winter wheat seedings estimate, and updated U.S. and world supply and consumption forecasts for the current marketing year.

For corn, the 2012 U.S. crop is estimated at 10.78 billion bushels, 55 million larger than the November forecast. The estimate of planted acreage of corn for all purposes was increased by 209,000 acres, the estimate of acreage harvested for grain was reduced by 346,000 acres, and the yield estimate was increased by 1.1 bushels per acre. The production estimate was larger than the pre-report average trade guess of just over 10.6 billion bushels, but the estimate of December 1, 2012 stocks of corn was actually much smaller than the average guess.  <Read More> 

Weekly Outlook - Will Corn and Soybean Prices Return to Pre-drought Levels?

March 2013 corn futures dropped below $5.50 in early May 2012 and were drifting lower when U.S. drought conditions turned prices higher starting in mid-June. The price of that contract peaked in early August, just short of the $8.50 mark. March 2013 soybean futures dropped below $11.50 in December 2011before South American drought conditions and then U.S. drought conditions sent that contract above $17.25 by mid-September 2012.

Corn prices have declined by more than $1.00 since the late summer peak, while soybean prices have declined by more than $3.00. The general expectation has been that prices of both commodities would return to pre-drought levels as early as 2013 as consumption adjusted to the lower supplies and as production rebounded in both South America and the U.S. The futures market currently reflects expectations that corn prices will moderate substantially from current levels by the fall of 2013 as larger crops are harvested in Argentina and then in the U.S. December 2013 futures, for example, are priced $.95 below December 2012 futures. The soybean market expects prices to moderate from current levels by the summer of 2013 as a large South American crop is harvested. August 2013 futures prices are nearly $.60 lower than March 2013 prices. Further price reductions are expected into the fall of 2013 as a larger U.S. crop is harvested. November 2013 futures are about $0.85 below the price of August 2013 futures. Still, the prices of both commodities for delivery in the 2013-14 marketing year are well above the levels prior to the drought of 2012. <Read More>

Focus on Soybean Oil

The sharp increase in soybean prices that began in June 2012 and peaked in early September 2012 was carried more by soybean meal prices than by soybean oil prices. From the June low to the September peak, January 2013 soybean futures increased by 43 percent, January soybean meal futures increased by 51 percent, and January soybean oil futures gained 20 percent. Soybean oil futures are now back to the level of early June, while soybean futures are 13 percent above the early June level and soybean meal futures are 21 percent higher.

For the 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA expects soybean oil prices to remain weak relative to soybean meal prices. The price of crude oil at Decatur, Illinois is expected to average 2.26 times the price (per pound) of 48 percent protein meal at Decatur. The ratio of average prices was 3.08 during the 2010-11 marketing year and 2.64 last year. In nominal terms, the average price of soybean oil is projected in a range of $0.51 to $0.55 per pound, compared to an average of $0.519 last year and $0.532 during the 2010-11 marketing year. On the other hand, the average prices of soybeans and soybean meal are projected to be substantially above the averages of the previous two years.  <Read More>

Upcoming Event - Ohio Valley Precision Ag Conference

Purdue Extension and University of Kentucky Extension will jointly host a Nov. 29 conference to teach farmers more about how precision agriculture systems could improve their bottom lines.

The Ohio Valley Precision Ag Conference will run from 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. (CST) at the Vanderburgh County 4-H Fairgrounds, 201 E. Boonville-New Harmony Road, Evansville. It will cover data management, implement systems technologies, and systems calibration and setup. It also will feature local precision agriculture companies and projects.

 

"The variety of technologies that farmers and industry representatives have to evaluate for on-farm use is staggering," said Kenneth Eck, Purdue Extension educator in Dubois County. "This conference will give folks a better understanding of what systems are available, how emerging technologies might mesh with producers' current systems, and how both farmers and agribusinesses can manage farm data for improved economic and environmental results."

 

The conference will start with a presentation titled "Data Utilization and Management with Precision Tools" by Betsy Bower and Troy Walker of Ceres Solutions.

 

Morning breakout sessions are:

• "RTK Accuracy" by Tim Stombaugh, associate professor of biosystems and agricultural engineering at the University of Kentucky.
• "Calibration Basics - John Deere" by Ben Carlisle, Wright-Stemle John Deere.
• "Variable Rate Seeding - Can You Do It and Do You Need To?" by Bob Nielsen, Purdue     Extension agronomist.

Afternoon breakout sessions are:

• A repeat of Stombaugh's "RTK Accuracy."
• "Calibration Basics – Trimble/Case IH" by Kevin Roy and Kristina Nadin, Hopf Equipment Case IH.
• "Economics of Investing or Upgrading: Old vs. New" by Greg Halich, associate Extension professor of agricultural economics at the University of Kentucky.

The conference also will feature a farmer panel discussion titled "What Do We Do With the Data and How is It Managed?" The keynote presentation will be "Precision Planting" by Gregg Sauder of Precision Planting Inc.

 

"This is the first time we've pulled together a program with so much of our expertise in one place," Eck said.

 

Conference registration is free, but reservations are required by Nov. 19. Participants can register online at http://tinyurl.com/pukyregister or by contacting any of the sponsoring Purdue Extension or University of Kentucky Extension county offices. Those counties in Indiana are Daviess, Dubois, Knox, Perry, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick. In Kentucky they are Daviess, Henderson, McLean, Ohio, Union and Webster.

 

A flyer for the program is available here.

Weekly Outlook - Corn and Soybean Prices Following Short-crop Pattern

The USDA’s November forecasts of the size of the 2012 U.S. corn and soybean crops were larger than expected, particularly for soybeans. As a result, the general downtrend in soybean prices since mid-September has accelerated, with January futures now at the lowest level since June 29. Corn prices have moved into the lower half of the trading range that has been in place since mid-September and December futures are at the lowest level since September 28. So far, prices seem to be following the classic pattern associated with small crops –peaking early in the marketing year and then declining as the year progresses.

The futures market reflects expectations that prices will continue to decline, especially into the 2013-14 marketing year. The expected rebound in South American soybean production, Argentine corn production, and U.S. corn and soybean production in 2013 all contribute to the expectation of lower prices. If those crops are as large as generally expected, prices will be even lower than currently reflected in the futures market. The USDA is forecasting record South American production of both crops. If planted acreage of corn in the U.S. in 2013 is at the same level as in 2012 and the U.S. average yield is near a trend value of 162.5 bushels, the crop would total 14.6 billion bushels, about 1.5 billion larger than the record crop and record consumption of the 2009-10 marketing year. <Read More> 

Weekly Outlook - Beyond the October Production Forcasts for Corn and Soybeans

At 10.706 billion bushels, the USDA’s October forecast of the U.S. corn crop was about 100 million bushels larger than the average trade guess and about equal to the September forecast. The October soybean forecast, at 2.86 billion bushels was about 90 million bushels larger than the average trade guess and 126 million larger than the September forecast. Prices of both commodities increased immediately after the forecasts were released.

The positive response to what appeared to be neutral to negative production forecasts suggest that the market had priced in the risk of even larger production forecasts. In addition the USDA forecast year ending stocks of both commodities to be near pipeline levels, and smaller than expected in the case of corn. In the case of soybeans, the projection of marketing year consumption was increased by 150 million bushels. Some interpreted the increase as a reflection of stronger demand than had been previously forecast.  <Read More>

Weekly Outook - Corn and Soybean Prices Searching for Support

December 2012 corn futures declined by $1.44 (17 percent) from the high on August 10 to the recent low on September 28. That contract has managed a recovery of about $0.40 so far this month. November 2012 soybean futures declined by $2.85 (16 percent) from the high on September 4 to the low on October 3 and have rebounded about $0.45 since then.

Prices over the past two months for corn and the past month for soybeans appear to be in the classic “short crop, long tail” pattern where prices peak early in a year of sharply lower production and then decline in the post-harvest period as the smaller supplies get rationed and production rebounds in the following year. A change in the trend of lower prices will require an additional supply shock or evidence that supplies have not been sufficiently rationed.  <Read More>

Weekly Outlook - Rationing the 2012 US Soybean Crop

The small South American soybean crop of 2012 will result in much smaller inventories of that crop by the end of the year. However, that draw down in stocks in combination with the much larger harvest expected in 2013 suggests that the pace of consumption of South American soybeans will not have to slow. In contrast, the small U.S. harvest this year will require a substantial reduction in consumption over the next year.

The magnitude of the year-over-year reduction in consumption of U.S. soybeans that will be required is not yet known. The new production forecast to be released on September 12 and the estimate of September 1stocks of old crop soybeans to be released on September 28 will provide for a better estimate of the needed decline. Based on the USDA’s August forecasts, a reduction of 400 million bushels (12.7 percent) will be required. The pace of consumption, as revealed in weekly export reports and monthly reports of domestic crush, will be monitored to verify that the pace of consumption is slowing.  <Read More>

Weekly Outook - Corn and Soybean Forecasts, What's Next?

The USDA’s August Crop Production report confirmed prospects for small U.S. corn and soybean crops and the need for consumption of both crops to decline sharply in the year ahead. Prices will now begin to reflect expectations for any changes in the production forecasts and confirmation that the necessary rationing is occurring. Indications of the pace of consumption will be provided by weekly reports of exports, ethanol production, and broiler placements and monthly reports of the domestic soybean crush, cattle feedlot inventories, and dairy cow numbers. New production forecasts will be released in September, October, and November and the final estimate will be released in January.  <Read More>

Weekly Outlook - Anticipating the Size of the 2012 Corn and Soybean Crops

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA will release the first yield and production forecasts for the 2012 U.S. corn and soybean crops on August 10. The first forecasts of the season are always highly anticipated, but none more than this year as widespread drought conditions have resulted in a wide range of yield and production expectations.

It might be useful to briefly review the NASS methodology for making corn and soybean yield and production forecasts. Data for the forecasts are collected in two separate surveys conducted roughly in the last week of July and the first week of August for the August report. The Agricultural Yield Survey (AYS) queries farm operators in 32 states for corn and 29 states for soybeans asking operators to identify the number of acres to be harvested and to forecast the final average yield. The sample of operators is based on a sophisticated sample design to achieve the desired sample size and each state is expected to achieve a minimum response rate of 80 percent. In 2011, approximately 27,000 operators were surveyed for all crops for the August report. Each operator is surveyed in subsequent months to obtain new forecasts of acreage and yield. Historical relationships indicate that respondents tend to be conservative in early forecasts of final yields (underestimate yield potential), particularly in drought years. This tendency is quantified and factored into official yield forecasts.  <Read More>

Weekly Outlook - Are Soybean Prices High Enough?

Much of the recent attention in commodity markets, at least in the popular press, has focused on the U.S. corn crop and the potential impact of drought conditions on production and prices. The focus has been warranted since corn is the largest U.S. crop; corn is used in a wide variety of food, feed, and industrial products; and corn yields are most susceptible to drought conditions.

As the growing season progresses and adverse weather conditions persist over large areas, more attention is being focused on the U.S. soybean crop. The importance of the size of the U.S. crop is magnified by the small South American harvest earlier this year. The USDA estimates that crop at 4.2 billion bushels, 16 percent smaller than the record crop of 2011. The USDA expects South America to maintain a large export presence, however, by sharply reducing inventories over the next year. Even so, the pace of exports of U.S. soybeans remains stronger than normal for this time of year. The USDA now projects 2011-12 marketing year exports at 1.34 billion bushels, 65 million more than projected in March. With only six weeks left in the marketing year, exports need to total 81 million bushels, 13.2 million per week, to reach the USDA projection. Export inspections for the four weeks ended July 17 averaged 16.1 million. As of July 12, the USDA reported unshipped export sales for the current year at 171.5 million bushels. It appears that exports may marginally exceed the USDA projection.  <Read More> 

Extreme Drought and Heat Wave - Not a Good Combination

In the previous drought post, it was noted that if upcoming rainfall chances did not materialize, we could be at a tipping point for much worse drought conditions.  Well, as we all know, those weather systems did not materialize and we are seeing increasingly widespread drought effects on crops, lawns, and gardens.  This week's US Drought Monitor report has placed the majority of Spencer County in the the "extreme" category and the 7-day forecast from the National Weather Service indicates 100+ degree temperatures each day with no chance of rain. 

Purdue Extension and the Extension Disaster Education Network have developed a drought information website that compiles drought management tips and resources for consumers, homeowners, and agricultural producers.  This site will continue to be updated with information as long as the drought conditions persist.  I encourage you to check out this this regularly for updates.   

Also, two articles have recently been released addressing the continued drought effects on corn and soybean production.  Links to those publications are listed below:

Hot & Dry: Stress on the Corn Crop Escalates

Signs of Drought Stress in Soybeans

Weekly Outlook - Soybean Fundamentals Remain Strong

Soybean prices began moving higher in July 2010, starting from about $9.50. July 2012 soybean futures reached a high of about $14.70 in late August 2011, declined to a low near $11.25 in mid-December 2011, and reached a high of $15.12 in early May 2012. Prices have been very choppy the past two months, but the July futures contract is now trading within about $.30 of the early May high. November 2012 futures prices have been lower than July futures, but have followed a similar pattern and are now trading at a contract high near $14.30.

U.S. soybean market fundamentals have been strong for an extended period of time. The strong fundamental factors have included record large exports in 2009-10 and 2010-11 as Chinese demand expanded, a reduction in U.S. soybean acreage in 2011, a relatively low U.S. average yield in 2011, intentions to reduce U.S. acreage again in 2012, and a very small soybean harvest in South America this year. These strong market fundamentals continue in the form of a rapid pace of consumption and concerns about the size of the 2012 U.S. crop.  <Read More>

Drought....and the Potential for More Drought

US Drought Monitor report for Indiana.  For more information, see the Drought Monitor website.

This week's US Drought Monitor Report indicates an increasing area of Indiana is now under a moderate or severe drought, with a portion of southwest Indiana falling under the "severe" category.  While certain aspects of the current drought conditions have some producers and others thinking "1988" in the back of their minds, it is too early to make such a prediction.

So far, Spencer County has fared better than our neighbors to the west and northwest.  Though we are in the moderate drought category, infrequent but timely rainfall, combined with cooler temperatures, especially overnight, have kept drought effects in crops, gardens, and home landscapes from becoming widespread.   

There is a slight chance of scattered showers this weekend but according to staff at the Indiana State Climate Office, the next chance for more widespread, substantial rainfall is not until late next week.  As a result, we are in a bit of a wait-and-see pattern as far as how the drought will progress, with the next 10-14 days being crucial.  If one or both of these predicted systems produce rainfall,  it could be just the timely rain event we need to hold off further drought progression, at least for a few more weeks.  However, if these systems fail to bring moisture, we could then be at the tipping point for something much more severe. 

As we watch how the situation progresses over the next two weeks, we will continue to post drought management information on the Gazette, on our Facebook page, and in our bi-monthly newsletter.  In the meantime, below are two articles addressing the topic.  The first is a recent article covering the effects we are currently seeing in corn and soybean crops.  The second, originally written in 2007, covers tips for home gardens and landscapes.

More Crops Affected as Drought Spreads Throughout Indiana

Help Your Garden Cope with Dry Spell

Weekly Outlook - Update on Export Progress

Much of the attention in the crop markets is rightly focused on the potential size of the northern hemisphere crops. Still, the on-going pace of consumption is an important measure of demand strength and the likely level of year ending stocks. Here we focus on the U.S. export sector for wheat, corn, and soybeans.

For wheat, the 2011-12 marketing year ended on May 31. Cumulative export inspections for the year totaled 1.036 billion bushels, slightly above last month's USDA projection of 1.025 billion bushels. Through April, cumulative Census Bureau export estimates were about 4 million bushels less than cumulative inspections. Assuming that margin persisted through May, marketing year exports were about 7 million bushels larger than forecast. For the marketing year that began on June 1, the USDA has projected exports at 1.150 billion bushels. As of May 31, new sales plus unshipped sales from the past marketing year totaled 235.6 million bushels, near the level of sales of a year earlier. To reach the USDA projection, shipments will need to average about 22.1 million bushels per week this year. Export inspections during the first week of the year were reported at 21.5 million bushels.  <Read More>

Weekly Outlook - Soybean Price Roller Coaster

November 2012 soybean futures reached a high of $14 in September 2011, declined to about $11.20 in December 2011, rebounded to almost $14 in early April and again in early May 2012, and traded to a low of $12.45 in the current trading session. The wide price swings reflect ever-changing supply and demand expectations.

Much of the strength in soybean prices during the first three months of this year reflected deteriorating production prospects in South America. The USDA currently projects production in five South American countries at 4.237 billion bushels, 779 million bushels (15.5 percent) smaller than the 2011 harvest and 833 million bushels (16.4 percent) smaller than the December 2011 forecast. Some believe the crop to be even smaller. The USDA will provide an updated estimate on June 12. Much of the price weakness over the past few weeks reflects growing concerns about the U.S. and world economic and financial conditions and the negative implications for commodity demand.  <Read More>

Poison Hemlock - A Mini Review

Travis Legleiter and Bill Johnson – Purdue Extension Weed Science Specialists

We have received a couple of calls on poison hemlock this spring with concerns of its presence in the Indiana landscape. The appearance of poison hemlock on roadsides and fencerows of Indiana is not new, but the weed may be more prevalent this year as it came out of winter dormancy and has been rapidly growing since the unusually warm days of early March. I myself noticed it being one of the first plants to green up in the roadside ditches this winter as I traveled the state (Image 1). The presence of this weed is not new in Indiana as I can find articles in the Purdue weed science database back to 2003 on the subject of poison hemlock. The largest threat of this weed is the toxicity of it’s alkaloids if ingested by livestock or humans, but it can also be harmful to aesthetic values and has been reported to creep into no-till corn and soybean fields as well.

Image 1. Photo of a green and growing poison hemlock plant in a roadside ditch taken on March 7, 2012 in central Indiana.

Biology and Identification
Poison Hemlock is a biennual weed that exists as a low growing herb in the first year and bolts to three to eight feet tall in the second year and produces flowers and seed. It is often not noticed or identified as a problem until the bolting and reproductive stages of the second year. The alternate compound leaves are pinnate (finely divided several times) and are usually triangular in outline. Flowers are white and occur in an umbel inflorescence. Poison hemlock is often confused with wild carrot but can be distinguished by its lack of hairs and purple blotches that occur on the stems.

Toxic Properties
Poison hemlock contains five alkaloids that are toxic to humans and livestock if ingested and can be lethal. All parts of the plants contain the toxic alkaloids with levels being variable throughout the year. Symptoms of toxicity include nervousness, trembling, and loss of coordination followed by depression, coma, and/or death. Initial symptoms will occur within a few hours of ingestion.

Cases of poisoning due to poison hemlock ingestion are rare as the plants emit a mousy odor that makes it undesirable and unpalatable to livestock and humans. Consumption and toxicity in animals usually occurs in poorly managed or overgrazed pastures where animals are forced to graze poison hemlock.

Control
Control of poison hemlock with herbicide is most effective when applied to plants in the first year of growth or prior to bolting and flowering in the second year. The closer to reproductive stages, the less effective the herbicide. In roadside ditches, pastures, and waste areas, herbicides containing triclopyr (Remedy Ultra) or triclopyr plus 2,4-D (Crossbow) are most effective in controlling poison hemlock. Other herbicides that provide adequate control when applied at the proper timing are dicamba (Clarity, Banvel), metsulfuron-methyl (Cimarron, Escort XP), metsulfuron-methyl plus dicamba (Cimarron Max) and clopyralid plus 2,4-D (Curtail).

For information on control of poison hemlock in corn and soybean please refer to a previous Purdue Weed Science article: Poison Hemlock Control in Corn and Soybeans.

For further information on toxic plants in Indiana refer to the Purdue University Weed Science Guide to Toxic Plants in Forages

Crop Outlook is Favorable, but Mother Nature Rules

Chris Hurt, Purdue Extension Agricultural Economics Specialist

Mother Nature always gets the last word when it comes to determining crop yields across Indiana. Last year she was unkind as a wet spring caused planting delays and then heat and dryness in mid-summer caused yield losses. Yields for both corn and soybeans were nearly 10 percent below normal.

Farmers are anxious for the new growing season in 2012 and the weather is giving them an early start. A warm and relatively dry winter means the planting season has started early increasing prospects for a return to favorable yields. 

While crop production was down in 2011, prices were at record highs. This meant that revenues for Indiana's major crops of corn, soybeans, and wheat reached a record high level of about $8.3 billion. 

A return to more normal crop production in 2012 could also bring lower prices, especially for corn. Increased production at lower prices means that total revenues would not change very much from the $8.3 billion from the 2011 crop.

However, what will change this year are higher production costs. Purdue University estimates suggest that costs of producing these crops will increase by 15 to 20 percent in 2012 compared to last year. Higher costs are led by fertilizer, fuel, and cash rents. These elevated costs mean the net returns or profits from Indiana cropland are expected to drop from the record levels achieved in the past two years. 

While a decline in returns is never welcomed, the decline is coming from record high levels. This means that crop incomes are expected to decline in 2012, but will still be strong relative to average incomes over the past decade. 

While prospects are favorable this spring, Mother Nature and market prices will ultimately determine the financial success of Indiana's 2012 crops.