Weekly Outlook - Corn Prices in Three Parts

Corn prices have recently moved in three distinct patterns. These include the patterns for new crop futures, old crop futures, and old crop cash prices.

December 2012 futures reached a high of $6.735 on August 31, 2011and declined erratically to the current low of $5.15. The decline since the third week of April totaled about $.50. Continued weakness reflects a combination of large crop expectations and demand concerns. The early planting season along with non-threatening weather conditions to date have created expectations for an above-trend yield in 2012. In combination with large acreage, yield expectations point to a crop well above 14 billion bushels. New crop demand concerns are in two categories. First, the delayed and likely slow implementation of 15 percent ethanol blends in the U.S. fuel supply point to stagnating corn consumption in that category next year as the E10 blend wall rapidly approaches. Second, the European debt crisis, a slower pace of economic growth in China, and the slow pace of job creation in the U.S. dampen commodity demand expectations for the year ahead. The one bright spot may be a larger export market for U.S. corn as the USDA has recently announced large sales to both China and “unknown” destinations. Conditions currently point to a substantial build-up of U.S. corn inventories next year and increasing expectations that prices will return to the lower averages experienced in the 2007-08 through 2009-10 marketing years. Average prices received by farmers in that three year period averaged just under $4.00.  <Read More>

In The Grow - Q & A

Q. What is the best way to eradicate henbit? Would a weed-and-feed in fall or spring be most effective? Would a spray weed killer be most effective in spring or fall? Could you use a pre-emergence like crabgrass preventer in the fall?

A. Henbit is a winter annual, meaning it germinates from seed in the fall, overwinters in a dormant state and then blooms and sets seed to complete its lifecycle in late winter/early spring. By mid- to late spring, the foliage will turn yellow, but if allowed to remain until then, it will have produced a lot of seed to germinate in years to come.  <Read More> 

Weekly Outlook - Is the Cattle Market Too Cautious?

The beef industry was stung by two negative events in the past two months that have left market traders uncertain about their longer term impacts. For now, market participants are taking a cautious approach until consumers more clearly define if they will reduce beef consumption.

The issue over lean finely textured beef (LFTB) played badly for cattle producers in early March and the fourth BSE cow found in the U.S. was announced on April 24. Finished cattle prices were about $129 per live hundredweight in early March before these news events, but have since declined to about $120. The decline in cash cattle prices has not been as severe as the drop in live cattle futures. At the start of March, June 2012 live cattle futures settled near $128, but declined about $15 to $113 as of April 27. In a similar manner, the December 2012 live cattle futures have declined by about $12 per hundredweight since the first of March. <Read More>

Early Planted Corn Developing Slowly

Planting of the 2012 corn crop in Indiana got off to its earliest ever start. By April 8, an estimated 6 percent of the state's corn crop was already planted and that increased to 24% by the following week (USDA-NASS, 2012). The early rush to begin planting corn was fueled by the unusually warm late March temperatures, soil conditions that were favorable for field activities and.................................. memories of the near-record breaking delayed planting of the 2011 corn crop. So, how is that crop faring nearly a month after some of it was planted? <Read More>