Weekly Outlook - Anticipating the Size of the 2012 Corn and Soybean Crops

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA will release the first yield and production forecasts for the 2012 U.S. corn and soybean crops on August 10. The first forecasts of the season are always highly anticipated, but none more than this year as widespread drought conditions have resulted in a wide range of yield and production expectations.

It might be useful to briefly review the NASS methodology for making corn and soybean yield and production forecasts. Data for the forecasts are collected in two separate surveys conducted roughly in the last week of July and the first week of August for the August report. The Agricultural Yield Survey (AYS) queries farm operators in 32 states for corn and 29 states for soybeans asking operators to identify the number of acres to be harvested and to forecast the final average yield. The sample of operators is based on a sophisticated sample design to achieve the desired sample size and each state is expected to achieve a minimum response rate of 80 percent. In 2011, approximately 27,000 operators were surveyed for all crops for the August report. Each operator is surveyed in subsequent months to obtain new forecasts of acreage and yield. Historical relationships indicate that respondents tend to be conservative in early forecasts of final yields (underestimate yield potential), particularly in drought years. This tendency is quantified and factored into official yield forecasts.  <Read More>

Forage Crops Could Provide Opportunities Following Corn

A wide range of forage crops could help grain and livestock producers salvage some value from their fields once the drought-ravaged corn crop has been harvested - if soil moisture returns to a level that can support plant growth.

While damaged corn can be used as forage to feed livestock, it won't be enough to thwart forage shortages. Several forage crops are available for Indiana growers to plant in late summer or early fall, and that could serve as livestock feed in the spring.

"For the August seeding, an excellent consideration would be spring oat that will be harvested by machine, or a combination of spring oat and forage turnip if grazed by livestock," said Keith Johnson, Purdue Extension forage specialist. "Spring oat will not survive the winter.

"While the expectation is for turnips to winterkill, too, it has been observed that they can survive a mild Indiana winter."

Another possible choice is annual ryegrass, but growers who go this route need to pay close attention to keep the crop from becoming a nuisance. Johnson recommended an early seeding to have both fall and spring harvests.  <Read More>

Heat and Drought Lead to Ear Rot Potential in Corn Grain, Silage

Heat and drought in the Corn Belt have created the perfect conditions for Aspergillus ear rot to develop in corn grain and silage - something Purdue Extension plant pathologists say grain and livestock producers need to prepare for.

The disease is caused by a fungus that produces aflatoxin, a toxic carcinogen for livestock that consume contaminated grain or silage. 

Aspergillus ear rot normally shows up near the end of the corn growing season as the crop reaches the dent phase. Growers can identify the disease by peeling back the husks and looking for stunted ears with an olive-green dusty mold.  <Read More>

August Home, Yard, and Garden Calendar

HOME (Indoor plants and activities)

Take cuttings from plants such as impatiens, coleus, geraniums and wax begonias to overwinter indoors. Root the cuttings in media such as moist vermiculite, perlite, peat moss or potting soil, rather than water.

Order spring-flowering bulbs for fall planting.

YARD (Lawns, woody ornamentals and fruits)

Newly established plants are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat and drought. If possible, apply 1 to 1.5 inches of water every 7 to 10 days as a gentle, thorough soaking.

Even well-established trees, shrubs and perennials will suffer from extreme heat coupled with drought. Symptoms may include wilting, leaf scorch, branch dieback, blossom drop, early "fall" color and leaf drop, and in some cases, plant death of specimens that were already ailing.

GARDEN (Vegetables, small fruits and flowers)

Temperatures above 90 F often leads to poor fruit set in most vegetable crops; upper 90s will stop fruit set in nearly all crops. Fruits that were already set may show uneven ripening, blossom-end rot, skin cracking, sunburn where foliage cover is poor, poor ear fill in corn and bitter flavor in cucumbers and other vegetables.

Keep the garden well watered during dry weather and free of weeds, insects and disease. Early morning is the best time to water, but areas under watering restrictions may need to adjust accordingly. While normally we discourage overhead sprinkling due to its inefficiency and potential for promoting plant disease, it can be very effective at decreasing temperature in the plant tissue.  <Read More> 

Early Weaning as a Drought Strategy

In addition to utilizing alternative forages and feedstuffs, early weaning and other herd management techniques can be effective drought management strategies for livestock producers.  The Purdue Animal Sciences Department recently created a video featuring Dr. Ron Lemenager discussing early weaning in times of drought and short forage supplies.  The video is available here.

Vilsack Opens Emergency Haying and Grazing of CRP Acres for Entire State

Indiana Farm Service Agency (FSA) State Executive Director Julia A. Wickard today announced additional drought relief for Indiana’s livestock producers. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack authorized the release of emergency haying and grazing for all Indiana counties for certain practices and acres enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) outside the primary nesting season for wildlife. This decision was based upon the U.S. Drought Monitor.  <Read More>

Weekly Outlook - Are Soybean Prices High Enough?

Much of the recent attention in commodity markets, at least in the popular press, has focused on the U.S. corn crop and the potential impact of drought conditions on production and prices. The focus has been warranted since corn is the largest U.S. crop; corn is used in a wide variety of food, feed, and industrial products; and corn yields are most susceptible to drought conditions.

As the growing season progresses and adverse weather conditions persist over large areas, more attention is being focused on the U.S. soybean crop. The importance of the size of the U.S. crop is magnified by the small South American harvest earlier this year. The USDA estimates that crop at 4.2 billion bushels, 16 percent smaller than the record crop of 2011. The USDA expects South America to maintain a large export presence, however, by sharply reducing inventories over the next year. Even so, the pace of exports of U.S. soybeans remains stronger than normal for this time of year. The USDA now projects 2011-12 marketing year exports at 1.34 billion bushels, 65 million more than projected in March. With only six weeks left in the marketing year, exports need to total 81 million bushels, 13.2 million per week, to reach the USDA projection. Export inspections for the four weeks ended July 17 averaged 16.1 million. As of July 12, the USDA reported unshipped export sales for the current year at 171.5 million bushels. It appears that exports may marginally exceed the USDA projection.  <Read More> 

Purdue Extension Drought Press Conference

On July 5, Purdue Extension held a drought press conference at the Indiana State Fairgrounds.  Extension Specialists and Educators addressed a variety of drought-related topics and answered questions from media.  To view the press conference, please see the video link below:

A news release highlighting the topics of discussion at the press conference is also available here.

Determining a Value for Corn Silage

A question that has come up recently in our area as producers look to make use of drought-damaged corn and utilize alternative forage sources, is "What is Corn Silage Worth?".  This is not always an easy question to answer and there are many methods that are used to determine a corn silage value.  A new factsheet written by Tamilee Nennich, Purdue Animal Sciences Assistant Professor, and Kern Hendrix, Animal Sciences Professor Emeritus, helps explain some of these methods and answer producer questions.  Also, as a companion piece to the factsheet, an Excel-based silage value calculator has been developed.  The factsheet and calculator are available at the links below:

Determining a Value for Corn Silage

Silage Value Calculator (Excel Spreadsheet)

Weekly Outlook - Pork Industry Faces Financial Disaster?

Drought and the impact on feed prices may be on the verge of creating a financial disaster for the pork industry and other livestock species. The crop stress which began in Indiana and Illinois is now spreading further to the west. Most of the media attention has been focused on crop producers who face large yield losses; however the animal industries may ultimately fare even worse.

Crop producers have the potential for two compensating income streams when yields are low. The first is what is called the"natural hedge." When yields are low across a broad geographic area, then prices generally rise. This is especially true when stocks-to-use ratios are tight as they are now. Under these conditions a 10 percent reduction in national yield is offset by a rise in prices that is substantially more than 10 percent. This means that revenues tend to be less negatively affected by yield losses. Secondly, many crop acres have some type of crop insurance that can help cushion the financial blow of low yields. While these conditions hold on average, there will be considerable ranges in how individual farm families are impacted.  <Read More>

Blossom End Rot - Another Drought Effect

Blossom-end rot on tomato (Creswell)

Anyone who has grown a vegetable garden for any length of time has probably at one point or another experienced the disappointment of reaching for a bright red, juicy tomato off the vine, only to find the bottom of the tomato to be rotten. And this is a year this has been a frequent occurrence for many gardeners. 

The culprit is a non-infectious disorder called blossom-end rot that affects not only tomatoes but also peppers and eggplants. Symptoms of blossom end rot first show up as small, light brown or water soaked spots on the blossom end of the fruit (thus the name). As the fruit ripens, spots enlarge rapidly, forming a dark, sunken, leathery lesion on the bottom of the fruit. Sometimes the lesions will cover the entire bottom half of the fruit. Blossom end rot usually affects the first fruits of the season most severely and many times the symptoms will disappear as the season progresses. While it may appear unappetizing, the un-rotted portion of the fruit is still edible.

Blossom-end rot is caused by a lack of calcium in the fruit. In most cases, this does not mean there is a lack of calcium in the soil. Rather, there are environmental factors that affect the plant’s uptake of calcium.  When the supply of calcium to the fruit does not keep up with its requirements, tissue in the fruit begins to break down. The environmental factors contributing to blossom-end rot include wide fluctuations in soil moisture levels (i.e. letting the plant reach the wilting point before watering), rapid plant growth followed by a prolonged period of dry weather, excessive rainfall which can smother roots, excessive use of nitrogen fertilizer or fresh manure, and root damage. This year's blossom-end rot occurrences most likely are due to soil moisture fluctuations and prolonged drought.

As mentioned early, rarely is the problem due to an actual soil calcium deficiency, so adding calcium to the soil is not usually an effective control method, unless recommended by a soil test. Foliar applications of calcium are also occasionally recommended, however they too are usually ineffective because the plants do not adequately absorb the calcium and get it to where it is needed most. An interesting point regarding blossom-end rot is that it usually affects the first fruits of the season most severely and once the plant's growth and calcium levels get back in balance, the symptoms disappear. So, when gardeners who have applied soil or foliar calcium, or some other home-remedy, see that the symptoms have disappeared, they mistakenly believe the calcium application was effective, when in reality, it was the plant managing the problem itself.    

To reduce the chances of blossom end rot occurring, some preventive steps can be taken. First, maintain a uniform moisture level in the soil - do not let the plants dry out repeatedly. Ideally, plants should receive the equivalent of one inch of water per week via rainfall or irrigation. Second, test soil regularly to maintain proper fertility and pH levels. Next, avoid using fertilizers containing high nitrogen levels or excessive amounts of fresh manure. These materials can cause excessive growth of leaves and stems and inhibit fruit development and production. Finally, do not cultivate deeper than 1 inch within a foot of the plant to avoid root damage.   

Blossom-end rot will always be annoyance for vegetable gardeners but with a few simple preventive steps, its effect on production can be greatly reduced.

2012 Wheat Variety Trial Results Now Posted

The results of the 2012 Wheat Variety Trials conducted in Spencer and Posey Counties are now available.  The 2012 plots contained 39 wheat varieties, replicated four times.  The results for both plots are located on the Purdue Extension-Spencer County website.   

Weekly Outlook - Considerable Uncertainty About Both Corn Supply and Demand

July 2012 corn futures are currently trading about $1.00 below the peak reached in August 2011, but $1.40 above the low reached a month ago. December 2012 futures are trading $1.50 above the low of June 15, 2012 and within $0.15 of the high reached on August 31, 2011.

Much of the recent strength in corn prices has been associated with very hot, dry conditions in the central and eastern Corn Belt and indications that yield prospects have been reduced substantially in those areas. As much of the crop in the Corn Belt has or soon will enter the reproductive stage, the market will continue to try to determine production prospects. In addition, the market is assessing the likely strength of demand to determine what price is needed to balance potential supply with likely consumption.  <Read More>