Weekly Outlook - Anticipating the Size of the 2012 Corn and Soybean Crops

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the USDA will release the first yield and production forecasts for the 2012 U.S. corn and soybean crops on August 10. The first forecasts of the season are always highly anticipated, but none more than this year as widespread drought conditions have resulted in a wide range of yield and production expectations.

It might be useful to briefly review the NASS methodology for making corn and soybean yield and production forecasts. Data for the forecasts are collected in two separate surveys conducted roughly in the last week of July and the first week of August for the August report. The Agricultural Yield Survey (AYS) queries farm operators in 32 states for corn and 29 states for soybeans asking operators to identify the number of acres to be harvested and to forecast the final average yield. The sample of operators is based on a sophisticated sample design to achieve the desired sample size and each state is expected to achieve a minimum response rate of 80 percent. In 2011, approximately 27,000 operators were surveyed for all crops for the August report. Each operator is surveyed in subsequent months to obtain new forecasts of acreage and yield. Historical relationships indicate that respondents tend to be conservative in early forecasts of final yields (underestimate yield potential), particularly in drought years. This tendency is quantified and factored into official yield forecasts.  <Read More>

Forage Crops Could Provide Opportunities Following Corn

A wide range of forage crops could help grain and livestock producers salvage some value from their fields once the drought-ravaged corn crop has been harvested - if soil moisture returns to a level that can support plant growth.

While damaged corn can be used as forage to feed livestock, it won't be enough to thwart forage shortages. Several forage crops are available for Indiana growers to plant in late summer or early fall, and that could serve as livestock feed in the spring.

"For the August seeding, an excellent consideration would be spring oat that will be harvested by machine, or a combination of spring oat and forage turnip if grazed by livestock," said Keith Johnson, Purdue Extension forage specialist. "Spring oat will not survive the winter.

"While the expectation is for turnips to winterkill, too, it has been observed that they can survive a mild Indiana winter."

Another possible choice is annual ryegrass, but growers who go this route need to pay close attention to keep the crop from becoming a nuisance. Johnson recommended an early seeding to have both fall and spring harvests.  <Read More>

Heat and Drought Lead to Ear Rot Potential in Corn Grain, Silage

Heat and drought in the Corn Belt have created the perfect conditions for Aspergillus ear rot to develop in corn grain and silage - something Purdue Extension plant pathologists say grain and livestock producers need to prepare for.

The disease is caused by a fungus that produces aflatoxin, a toxic carcinogen for livestock that consume contaminated grain or silage. 

Aspergillus ear rot normally shows up near the end of the corn growing season as the crop reaches the dent phase. Growers can identify the disease by peeling back the husks and looking for stunted ears with an olive-green dusty mold.  <Read More>