Weekly Outlook - Corn Yield Prospects

With 2011-12 marketing year-ending stocks of U.S. corn expected to be near pipeline levels, the size of the 2012 crop has substantial price implications. Acreage intentions will be revealed in the USDA’s March 30 Prospective Plantings report, but much of the current discussion centers on prospects for the U.S. average corn yield.

Widely differing views of yield prospects for 2012 have emerged. A number of factors may contribute to the diverse views, but four have received a lot of attention. These include (1) the timing of planting, (2) the magnitude and potential change in the trend yield, (3) expected summer weather conditions, and (4) the location and magnitude of acreage changes. A brief discussion of these factors follows, with more detailed analysis to be provided in upcoming posts at farmdocdaily.  <Read More>

Does It Make Sense to Plant So Early?

Reports are starting to come in of fields planted by mid-March in central and southern Illinois. Though there have been some fields planted this soon in the past, this is the earliest we have ever had good planting conditions across so much of the state, and it's certain that we have never before had this many corn acres planted so early.

With the warm weather continuing, we expect the crop planted now to get off to a fast start. It takes about 115 growing degree days (GDD) to get corn plants to emerge after planting. Highs of about 80 degrees and lows in the 50s mean that we are getting 15 to 18 GDD per day, so we might see emergence within about a week if it stays this warm. Some fields planted very early have already emerged.  <Read More>