In December 2011, the USDA judged total corn production
prospects in Argentina and Brazil at 3.54 billion bushels. That forecast was
reduced by 120 million bushels in January and by an additional 160 million
bushels earlier this month. All of the reduction has been for the Argentine
crop. Similarly, combined soybean production in those two countries was
forecast at 4.67 billion bushels in December, but was reduced by 90 million
bushels in January and an additional 165 million bushels earlier this month.
Total precipitation has been well below average in southern
Brazil since late January, suggesting that production there may fall short of
the current forecast. Prospects for much smaller South American crops than
initially forecast have raised expectations for stronger export demand for U.S.
corn and soybeans during the remainder of the 2011-12 marketing year and in the
first half of the 2012-13 marketing year. Over the past two months, the USDA
has raised the U.S. corn export forecast for the current year by 100 million
bushels, to a total of 1.7 billion bushels. The forecast is still 100 million
bushels below the initial forecast made in May 2011 and 135 million less than
exports of a year ago. The forecast of U.S. soybean exports during the current
year has declined steadily from the initial forecast of 1.54 billion bushels to
the current forecast of 1.275 billion bushels, 226 million less than exported
last year. <Read More>
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