The 2011-12 corn marketing year is approaching the half-way
point. At this time of year, prospects for marketing year consumption and
ending stocks are often fairly clear and the market begins to focus more on new
crop prospects.
This year, consumption, stocks, and price prospects are far
from clear. There is considerable uncertainty about the pace of consumption for
the rest of year in each of the major categories. If anything, the uncertainty
outlined two weeks ago has intensified. The surprisingly small estimates of
feed and residual use during the last half of the 2010-11 and first quarter of
the 2011-12 marketing years had created expectations of a “correction” to be
revealed in upcoming USDA Grain Stocks reports. Now, the on-going
year-over-year decline in broiler production, prospects for fewer numbers of
cattle on feed later in the year, and the relatively mild winter weather to date
point to some slowdown in feed use, whatever the pace actually is. <Read More>
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