Thursday, March 8, 2012

Anticipating the March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate

It is widely anticipated that the 2012-13 corn marketing year will be a transition from the current environment of tight stocks and high prices to one of a large crop, increasing stocks, and lower prices. The futures market reflects that expectation as the March 2013 futures price is currently trading $0.80 to $0.85 below the March 2012 price.

While there is general agreement on the likely direction of production and stocks in the year ahead, there is considerable uncertainty about magnitudes. That uncertainty starts with the likely level of stocks at the end of the current marketing year. Some light will be shed on that issue, as well as the potential size of the 2012 crop, when the USDA releases the quarterly Grain Stocks and the annual Prospective Plantings reports on March 30.  <Read More>

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