Thursday, June 28, 2012

Weekly Outlook - Soybean Fundamentals Remain Strong

Soybean prices began moving higher in July 2010, starting from about $9.50. July 2012 soybean futures reached a high of about $14.70 in late August 2011, declined to a low near $11.25 in mid-December 2011, and reached a high of $15.12 in early May 2012. Prices have been very choppy the past two months, but the July futures contract is now trading within about $.30 of the early May high. November 2012 futures prices have been lower than July futures, but have followed a similar pattern and are now trading at a contract high near $14.30.

U.S. soybean market fundamentals have been strong for an extended period of time. The strong fundamental factors have included record large exports in 2009-10 and 2010-11 as Chinese demand expanded, a reduction in U.S. soybean acreage in 2011, a relatively low U.S. average yield in 2011, intentions to reduce U.S. acreage again in 2012, and a very small soybean harvest in South America this year. These strong market fundamentals continue in the form of a rapid pace of consumption and concerns about the size of the 2012 U.S. crop.  <Read More>

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