The pace of consumption of U.S. corn has been slowing, as
evidenced by small weekly exports and export sales, smaller weekly estimates of
ethanol production, declining cattle feedlot placements, and increased slaughter
of dairy cows and the hog breeding herd. The extent of rationing required in
the current marketing year that has just begun, however, is still not clear
since the size of the 2012 crop is not yet known.
The average U.S. corn yield will obviously be the most
important factor in determining crop size, but the magnitude of acreage
harvested for grain will also influence crop size. The likely magnitude of
harvested acreage starts with the magnitude of planted acres. The USDA’s
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) June Acreage report
estimated corn acreage planted for all purposes this year at 96.4 million
acres. History suggests that the final acreage estimate will deviate, at least
slightly, from this estimate. In the previous 10 years, for example, the final
estimate of planted acres deviated by as little as 37,000 to as much as 1.345
million acres from the June estimate. <Read More>
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