Weird Weather and Pest Predictions

One of the most common questions that has come up in response to this season's winter weather (or lack thereof) is what effect it will have on pest problems this spring or summer, particularly insect populations.  Below are excerpts of responses given by two Extension experts. 

Larry Caplan, Extension Horticulture Educator in Vanderburgh County addressed this question in a recent newspaper column:

I was asked the other day what effect this strange weather will have on our pest problems this year. That is always a very tough topic for me. I don’t like to make predictions, because there are so many variables that can affect future events, rendering my predictions worthless. Still, there are a few things that I expect will happen this season.

First of all, everything will start happening at least 3 weeks earlier than normal because of the long warm-up we’ve had. Crabgrass germination occurs at about the same time as the forsythia shrub blooms. Usually, we can hold off applying our pre-emergent herbicides until mid to late March; this year, though, some parts of the tri-state may already be too late to get the best preventative control.

Dormant oil is applied to fruit trees to prevent later problems with spider mites. The oil needs to be applied before the trees bud out, otherwise the young leaves will be burned by the chemical. It’s already too late in some places. Likewise, the traditional orchard sprays to control disease and insect attacks should begin as the buds open. Normally, gardeners don’t expect to begin this until late March or early April, but I’ve already seen apple and cherry trees in bloom. Be sure to stop spraying while the flowers are open, so that you don’t hurt any bees that may be out.

The repeated storms of the last few weeks have dumped a lot of moisture on the tri-state. With moist conditions and standing water, we can expect increases in biting midges, mosquitoes, and crane flies. This is what we’ve seen for the last couple of years, which have all been pretty wet.

Warm, moist weather is ideal for fire blight, a bacterial disease that attacks apples, crabapples, and pears. The bacteria usually enters the tree through the flowers, but it can also enter twigs damaged by hail storms. Spraying the antibiotic Streptomycin during bloom and after a hail storm may offer some protection.

If warm weather continues, we may see an earlier emergence of Japanese beetles, eastern tent caterpillars, and other pests, but I don’t believe we’ll see increased numbers. Very few of these insects are killed by severe winters, so I don’t think their survival rate will change much.

And from Dr. Rick Foster, Purdue Extension Entomology Specialist, some points focusing specifically on insect populations:

While some insects, such as flea beetles, are directly impacted by cold winter weather and experience greater survival and higher populations as a result of mild winters such as the one we just experienced, many insect species are very well adapted to winter weather and will survive just fine no matter how cold it is.

Most insects have an amazing ability to reproduce in large numbers and, if spring and summer weather is conducive, will be able to develop to serious population levels no matter how many survived the winter.

Finally, some of our pests overwinter indoors and others overwinter in the South, so our winter weather has little effect on their populations.

The bottom line is that for a few insects, we can definitely expect higher populations, but for many others, we just can’t predict.

As you can see, there is no one answer to this seemingly simple question.  While winter weather conditions have little effect on most insect populations, it is the earlier-than-normal emergence of these insects, as well as weeds and diseases, that will be the most likely effect of our mild winter.  And, as Mr. Caplan adds, this is Indiana, so it could snow this weekend and change everything!

Continued Focus on Corn Consumption and Stocks

May 2012 corn futures have traded in a range of about $1.00 per bushel since last fall. Since late January, the trading range has been about $.40 per bushel and the current price is near the top of that range. The narrowing of the trading range for old-crop corn prices may point to a breakout from the long standing sideways trend. The central question for the direction of old-crop prices is whether consumption has slowed enough to ensure a minimum level of year ending stocks.  <Read More>

In the Grow - Q & A

Rosie Lerner, Purdue Extension Consumer Horticulture Specialist

Q. It may be just a coincidence, but this year we have not had any mice. We live in the country and are always infested with house mice and a few deer mice every year. This year I have not caught a one. I wonder if it is because we had a bumper crop of chipmunks last summer. Are chipmunks predators of mice, or do they out compete mice for food?

A. Chipmunks are not predators, but an established chipmunk territory could provide enough competition to discourage mice. According to the Indiana Wildlife Conflicts website, http://www.wildlifehotline.info, chipmunk diet is primarily nuts, berries and seeds, but they also eat mushrooms, insects and dead animals. Another possibility is that the mouse population is down in your area due to predator activity (owls, hawks, snakes, cats, skunks and raccoons, etc.). And perhaps the relatively mild winter hasn't driven mice to seek shelter inside your home as much as in previous years. Whatever the reason, enjoy their absence while you can!


Q. Is there such a thing as a male cactus that does not bloom ever? Three years ago I bought Christmas cactuses for my sister and myself. Mine has bloomed several times, but my sister's hasn't bloomed at all. Someone told us that she must have received a male plant; we would like to know if this is possible.

Holiday cactus

A. Lack of flowering is not a gender issue. Christmas (and other holiday) cactus plants have both male and female parts within the same flower. But even in plants that have separate male and female parts, both types would flower. It is the fruit that is born only by the female flowers. The male plants still flower but do not bear fruit.

So if your sister's plant never blooms, it is not because of gender; it's likely not getting the right environmental signals. See articles at http://www.hort.purdue.edu/ext/cactusFAQs.html and http://www.hort.purdue.edu/ext/christmas_cactus.html for further information.

Anticipating the March 1 Corn Stocks Estimate

It is widely anticipated that the 2012-13 corn marketing year will be a transition from the current environment of tight stocks and high prices to one of a large crop, increasing stocks, and lower prices. The futures market reflects that expectation as the March 2013 futures price is currently trading $0.80 to $0.85 below the March 2012 price.

While there is general agreement on the likely direction of production and stocks in the year ahead, there is considerable uncertainty about magnitudes. That uncertainty starts with the likely level of stocks at the end of the current marketing year. Some light will be shed on that issue, as well as the potential size of the 2012 crop, when the USDA releases the quarterly Grain Stocks and the annual Prospective Plantings reports on March 30.  <Read More>