Weekly Outlook - Soybean Price Roller Coaster

November 2012 soybean futures reached a high of $14 in September 2011, declined to about $11.20 in December 2011, rebounded to almost $14 in early April and again in early May 2012, and traded to a low of $12.45 in the current trading session. The wide price swings reflect ever-changing supply and demand expectations.

Much of the strength in soybean prices during the first three months of this year reflected deteriorating production prospects in South America. The USDA currently projects production in five South American countries at 4.237 billion bushels, 779 million bushels (15.5 percent) smaller than the 2011 harvest and 833 million bushels (16.4 percent) smaller than the December 2011 forecast. Some believe the crop to be even smaller. The USDA will provide an updated estimate on June 12. Much of the price weakness over the past few weeks reflects growing concerns about the U.S. and world economic and financial conditions and the negative implications for commodity demand.  <Read More>