Much of the attention in the crop markets is rightly focused
on the potential size of the northern hemisphere crops. Still, the on-going pace
of consumption is an important measure of demand strength and the likely level
of year ending stocks. Here we focus on the U.S. export sector for wheat, corn,
and soybeans.
For wheat, the 2011-12 marketing year ended on May 31.
Cumulative export inspections for the year totaled 1.036 billion bushels,
slightly above last month's USDA projection of 1.025 billion bushels. Through
April, cumulative Census Bureau export estimates were about 4 million bushels
less than cumulative inspections. Assuming that margin persisted through May,
marketing year exports were about 7 million bushels larger than forecast. For
the marketing year that began on June 1, the USDA has projected exports at 1.150
billion bushels. As of May 31, new sales plus unshipped sales from the past
marketing year totaled 235.6 million bushels, near the level of sales of a year
earlier. To reach the USDA projection, shipments will need to average about 22.1
million bushels per week this year. Export inspections during the first week of
the year were reported at 21.5 million bushels. <Read More>
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